The strategy of decision making has long been studied among social scientists. Why do some people feel certain they’ve made the right choice, while others waffle back and forth, easily overwhelmed by their circumstances? Since answers to this question were bound to be complex, researchers at Northwestern’s Kellogg have turned to a complex source: the game of chess.
Yuval Salant and Jorg Spenkuch set out to do a deep dive on the complex decisions that we all make. They wanted to go beyond the everyday choices like which book to read next or what to have for dinner on any given night. Exactly what does it take to make a good choice in the face of growing complexity? In order to gain some insight they examined a database of more than 200 million moves performed in an online chess platform. Unsurprisingly, they found that those with more experience in the game (the chess masters) benefitted more from extra time to evaluate all options. Shockingly, however, they found that everyone - expert or not - suffered when the amount of mediocre choices outweighed the amount of poor (losing) choices.
Anyone who plays chess will understand why this is a perfect medium to study decision-making. Unlike daily life, each choice can be objectively ranked. Chess moves either lead to a win, or lead to a loss. It is complex enough of a game, however, that it is difficult to understand the nature of each option in the middle of a game (especially when time is of the essence). Players typically consider only a small subset of all possible options, and pick the first one that they consider good enough, a strategy that economists call “satisficing.” As mentioned above, when more mediocre options were considered, the players were more likely to choose a losing strategy regardless of level. So “satisficing” can often lead to undesirable results.
We all face these complex decisions every day, especially those in leadership. Hopefully this research will help us come out on the better side of the next big choice we have to make. Check out the new article here that summarizes this research and see if it can shed some light on your own process. If so, perhaps it can help you to avoid the pitfalls of the mediocre choices.